What year is transit most reliable?

There isn’t a single year that stands out as universally the most reliable for transit. Reliability varies by city, by system, and by the metrics used to measure performance.

In this article, we explore how reliability is measured, why year-to-year comparisons are complex, and how riders can interpret data to determine the most dependable year for a given city or route. If you share a city, I can pull the latest official figures and identify the year with the strongest performance there.

How reliability in transit is measured

Key metrics used by agencies

Reliability is tracked through a core set of metrics that agencies publish and compare across years. Use these to evaluate and compare performance over time.

• On-time performance (OTP): the share of trips that arrive or depart within a defined window of the schedule (commonly 5–10 minutes).


• Cancellations: the percentage of trips canceled and not operated as scheduled.


• Delay per trip: the average number of minutes late per trip.


• Headway adherence: how consistently vehicles arrive at the scheduled intervals on high-frequency routes.


• Disruptions and incidents: events that degrade service, such as signal failures, weather, or major detours.

These metrics together form a picture of reliability, but definitions and windows vary by agency, so direct comparisons require normalization and context.

Why year-to-year comparisons differ

Several factors can shift reliability from one year to the next. The list below identifies common sources of variation that riders should consider when comparing years.

• External shocks: pandemics, strikes, extreme weather, or other unexpected events that disrupt normal operations.


• Maintenance and investment cycles: periods of intensified maintenance or capital projects that temporarily affect service.


• Demand and service levels: changes in ridership prompting adjustments to frequency and coverage.


• Infrastructure upgrades and construction: closures, detours, and ramped-up work that affect OTP and headways.


• Policy and funding changes: shifts in governance, fare policies, or funding that influence operations.


• Operational practices and technology: new signaling, fleet modernization, or automation that can improve or disrupt reliability during rollout.

In practice, year comparisons must account for these factors. A year with apparent higher reliability might reflect reduced service levels or a smaller network, while a busier year could have strong per-trip performance on core routes despite wider fluctuations.

Regional patterns: what the data show in recent years

Below are broad regional patterns. Specific years and figures vary by city and line, so consult local reports for precise conclusions.

• North America: The COVID-19 pandemic disrupted reliability in 2020–2021; many networks recovered through 2022–2023, but staffing and maintenance challenges persisted in some areas into 2024–2025.


• Europe: Core urban corridors often showed steady OTP, with improvements from targeted maintenance and signaling upgrades in some cities; other places faced disruptions from ongoing construction or labor actions.


• Asia and Oceania: Highly urbanized networks frequently maintain high reliability on core routes, though disruptions occur on specific lines during major projects or events.

These are broad trends and do not designate a single “most reliable year” across all transit systems. For precise comparisons, check the local agency’s annual performance reports.

How to determine the most reliable year for your city

If you want to pinpoint the most reliable year for a specific city, use a structured approach to compare apples to apples across years and services.

1. Collect annual reliability metrics (OTP, cancellations, delays, headway adherence) from the city’s transit agency for multiple recent years.


2. Decide which metric matters most for your travel (e.g., OTP or headway consistency) and whether you care about core routes or the entire network.


3. Normalize data to account for service level differences (compare similar routes, times of day, and days of the week).


4. Compare reliability during peak vs. off-peak periods to see if patterns differ by time of day.


5. Note any unusual events (construction, strikes, major incidents) that could skew a given year and adjust interpretation accordingly.

Bottom line: the “most reliable year” is location-specific and depends on which metrics and routes you consider most important. If you share a city, I can pull the current official figures and identify the year with the strongest performance there.

Bottom line for riders

Riders should rely on ongoing performance disclosures rather than a single year. Look at the metrics that matter to your daily travels, track core routes over several years, and consider typical reliability during your normal travel windows and days of the week.

Summary

Transit reliability does not have a universal best year. It varies by city, system, and the metrics used. The most reliable year is best understood within a local context, typically aligned with stable funding, well-maintained infrastructure, and fewer disruptive events. For travelers and planners, the recommended approach is to consult local annual performance reports, monitor OTP and related indicators over multiple years, and use that historical pattern to anticipate future reliability. If you name a city, I’ll fetch the latest figures and identify the year with the strongest performance there.

What year is the most reliable Ford Transit?

The most reliable Ford Transit years are generally considered to be from 2018 to 2024, as these models have addressed early issues and incorporate improvements in technology and safety. For the Transit Custom specifically, the 2012-2016 models with the 2.2 TDCi Duratorq engine are noted for reliability, while it's advisable to avoid the 2015-2016 model years due to engine and rear differential problems. 
General Ford Transit (full-size)

• 2018-2024: This range is recommended for its improved reliability. Ford refined the EcoBoost engines and addressed early concerns with the aluminum body in these years. 

Ford Transit Custom (medium-size)

• 2012-2016: The 2.2 TDCi Duratorq engine in these models is considered very reliable and proven, especially for high-mileage use. 
• Avoid 2015-2016: These specific years are not recommended due to engine and rear differential issues. 

What makes later models more reliable?

• Technological and safety advancements: Newer models include modern safety features and more fuel-efficient engines. 
• Refinements: Ford made improvements to the engines and addressed some of the issues that appeared in earlier versions. 

Which Transit engine is most reliable?

The most reliable Ford Transit engines are generally considered to be the 2.2 TDCi Duratorq diesel (especially the chain-driven 2012-2016 models) and the 3.7L naturally aspirated V6 gasoline engine. The 2.2 TDCi is praised for its durability and simplicity, while the 3.7L V6 is a reliable and simple option, particularly if you don't need the power of the EcoBoost. For newer models, the 2.0 EcoBlue diesel is more fuel-efficient but is less reliable due to its wet timing belt design, which can cause failures. 
This video discusses the most reliable Ford engines, including the Transit's V6: 56sTCcustomsYouTube · Jun 17, 2025
Older and more reliable options

• 2.2 TDCi Duratorq (2012-2016): This engine is a workhorse, known for its durability and being chain-driven, which is more reliable than a wet belt system.
• 2.5 DI (1994-2000): This older, mechanically simple "banana engine" is famous for its longevity, often reaching over 500,000 km due to its lack of electronic components. 

Reliable modern options

• 3.7L V6 (Naturally Aspirated): This gasoline engine is a top choice for reliability, making up for a lack of power with its simple, robust design. 
• 2.0 EcoBlue Diesel (post-2018): While it offers better fuel efficiency, many consider it less reliable than older diesels because it uses a wet timing belt that can fail prematurely. 

Other considerations

• 3.5L EcoBoost V6: This turbocharged engine offers more power, but its complexity makes it slightly less reliable than the naturally aspirated 3.7L, and it requires strict oil change intervals. 
• Maintenance is key: Regardless of the engine, proper maintenance, especially regular oil changes, is crucial for maximizing the lifespan of any engine. 

You can also watch this video to learn how to extend the life of your Ford Transit engine: 47sAutotrendsYouTube · Aug 17, 2025

What year to avoid a Ford Transit van?

Quick Answer: Avoid Ford Transit Passenger Wagon Models 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, and 2023. Several years don't work well if you want the most reliable Ford Transit Passenger Wagon year. We advise refraining from an investment in the 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, and 2023 selections.

What's the best Ford Transit to buy?

1. Ford Transit Custom. The Transit Custom is one of Britain's best-selling vans – and we think it's also the best medium-sized van you can buy. It drives brilliantly, is comfortable on the road and is available in a mind-boggling number of permutations.